The Minnesota Timberwolves are putting immense faith in Jonathan Kuminga, having promised the former Golden State Warriors forward a starting role on a team looking to push into championship contention.
The wish of the Kuminga move working out could be dependant on the 23-year-old's 3-point shooting and becoming a reliable catch-and-shoot threat, something he could never consistently deliver the Warriors which was a factor in his up-and-down role in the rotation over nearly five years.
Jonathan Kuminga must give Timberwolves reliable 3-point shooting
Kuminga will be entering a Timberwolves starting lineup featuring Rudy Gobert at the five. While that should aid him defensively where Kuminga may be able to be more aggressive chasing opposing players on the perimeter, it does present for a potential problem in terms of spacing on the other end of the floor.
The fact Gobert's essentially a non-factor from beyond the restricted circle means there's some pressure on Kuminga to be more of a 3-point threat. Chris Finch and the Timberwolves aren't going to want to have two players on the floor who aren't respected by opposing defenses from beyond the arc, which in turn will likely lead to Kuminga being on the bench down the stretch of games and in big moments.
Kuminga will have to be better than the 33.2% he's shot from 3-point range over his career. He's been sub 34% for four of his five seasons, with the one outlier emerging in his second year where he shot 37%. The former seventh overall pick began last season strongly when he went 4-of-6 from beyond the arc on opening night against the Los Angeles Lakers, but wound up at only 32.1% before being traded to the Atlanta Hawks in February.
The Timberwolves no longer have the luxury of replacing Gobert with Naz Reid which would have made for a more complementary fit with Kuminga, albeit those hypothetical lineups would have taken a hit defensively.
Jonathan Kuminga's 3-point shooting will dictate his playing time
Minnesota ranked sixth in 3-point percentage last season and will surely be looking to maintain a similar mark again. One of the biggest issues with that aspiration is they'll be without injured former Warrior Donte DiVincenzo who shot 37.9% from beyond the arc on nearly eight attempts per game, proving their highest volume shooter outside Anthony Edwards last season.
Kuminga's 3-point shooting will ultimately dictate his playing time. Ayo Dosunmu (41.4% 3-point shooting last season with the Timberwolves) and Terrence Shannon Jr. (40.8%) are projected to come off the bench, but could easily average more minutes than Kuminga if he can't get his three ball to at least league average (35-36%).
History would suggest that's not going to happen, but Kuminga will need to defy it if his time with the Timberwolves is to prove a success, and if he's to build his value ahead of another potential entry into free agency next year.
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