You may have heard that the NBA will be expanding soon, and a recent board of governors vote has paved the way for new franchises in Seattle and Las Vegas.
It’s easy to write about an expansion draft as if it were to be held tomorrow, but these teams won’t be playing until the 2028-29 season, so that’s what we’re imagining here. Projecting players, salaries, draft prospects, and team constructions three offseasons early is an idiot’s errand, which is why I’m the right guy to do it!
The current CBA has pre-defined expansion regulations. Although there could be tweaks if owners or players opt out of the collective bargaining agreement early, we’ll proceed under the assumption that any changes will be minimal. Several of these rules won’t apply to today’s exercise anyway, but they’re great for fans to know:
- Existing teams can protect up to eight players. Only one person may be chosen per team, and incumbents are free to make deals with expansion franchises to incentivize specific selections (e.g., giving up draft picks to make sure a useful unprotected player isn’t taken). Remember, this system was created to ensure that expansion teams are bad!
- Unrestricted free agents are ineligible to be selected. Restricted free agents selected transform into unrestricted free agents, free to sign with anyone; you’d better know what you’re getting into if you draft one of them.
- Expansion teams have only two-thirds of the salary cap of existing teams in their first year, which projects to be $110.7 million of a $166 million cap.
- Expansion teams can waive players they select and have it count toward the salary floor, but not toward the salary cap. This could be important if they make a deal to take an ugly contract off of an incumbent team’s books.
- The expansion teams’ initial draft pick will be fixed, likely at the fourth and fifth picks. This is done to ensure that existing teams that are in bad shape aren’t completely screwed out of a chance at lottery luck and to make sure expansion teams aren’t given too big a leg up.
We have no idea what a potential Las Vegas franchise would be named. Despite the league’s full-throated endorsement of sports gambling, the recent Magic City Night controversy in Atlanta and the gambling scandals that dogged the season’s start suggest that Adam Silver wouldn’t look too kindly upon anything that isn’t kid-friendly. So no Sinners, Blackjacks, High Rollers, etc.
Let’s stick with animals. Everyone loves animals. How about the Las Vegas Monsters? Gila monsters crawl through the Vegas sands, and it’s a fun moniker that could go in any number of cool directions for branding purposes.
I took a stab at a dreamy (but feasible) starting lineup for both the Monsters and the Seattle SuperSonics (which you can find over at Thunderous Intentions, for reasons both obvious and subtle – make sure to click over there when you’re done here!). As you’ll see, there’s a future where the Monsters are headlined by a name that’ll be quite familiar to Warriors fans.
Las Vegas Monsters starting 5
PG: Aaron Holiday
SG: Cam Spencer
SF: Nikola Kusturica (Rookie)
PF: Jonathan Kuminga
C: Jakob Poeltl
Zion Williamson is a popular guy in most mock expansion drafts, but he’ll actually be an unrestricted free agent after 2028, meaning he’s ineligible to be drafted. A different controversial power forward leads Las Vegas in this exercise.
I have a bad feeling we’ll be having the exact same conversations about Jonathan Kuminga in two years that we had before the trade deadline this season, and there’s a real chance a team leaves him unprotected if they need to get off of his next contract (whatever that ends up being).
Kuminga feels destined to be the leading scorer of an expansion franchise, where he can be the true alpha without worrying about a crotchety old coach yanking him for missed box-outs, sloppy defense, or other absent winning characteristics. He’ll have just turned 26 before the start of the ‘28-’29 season, and it’s easy to see him dropping 22 highlight-filled points each hot desert night.
We know Kuminga’s flaws, but we also know his strengths. A spring-loaded battering ram steamrolling to the hoop would be quite the centerpiece for an expansion team that will embrace, nay, need, Kuminga at his most aggressive. He’ll have more opportunities in Vegas than ever before.
Kuminga’s dream running mate at center? Jakob Poeltl, but not because of Poeltl. Let me explain.
The Toronto Raptors could give up significant draft capital to rid themselves of Poeltl in the summer of ‘28 – a time at which Poeltl will still have two more years and nearly $60 million left on his contract. Could the Monsters get a distant first out of this? Depending on how dire Toronto’s cap situation is, it’s entirely possible.
Poeltl has battled back issues of late, but he’s a serviceable old-school center when healthy who provides perfectly cromulent back-line defense and screen-setting. Regardless, this is about getting an extra pick, something any smart expansion team should prioritize.
Given the frontcourt's spacing restrictions and likely high salaries, the Monsters would need to prioritize cheap shooting in the backcourt. At point guard, I’d love to see them snag one of my favorite underappreciated floor generals, Aaron Holiday. Holiday is a career 38 percent shooter from deep who tries defensively, despite being undersized. He’s the perfect caretaker point guard for the team’s young wings as the Monsters try to get their feet under them.
Las Vegas would be lucky to snag Cam Spencer at shooting guard. Spencer will be a young 28 at the start of LV’s inaugural season, and he’s a dead-eye shooter and creative passer. He can toggle between either guard position in a pinch, and he’s willing to take difficult shots from way beyond the arc, opening the paint for Kuminga’s drives.
Finally, we get to the truly speculative stuff. As we discussed at the top, the Monsters will likely have the fourth or fifth pick in the 2028 NBA draft, which is currently expected to be pretty weak. That said, there are always gems to be found. Serbia’s 16-year-old wing, Nikola Kusturica, is already 6’9” tall with a rumored 7’3” wingspan, but he has shooting touch and pretty handles to go with his mouthwatering measurables.
If it all works out, Kuminga would provide reason for “oohs” while Kusturica elicits “ahhs” from a spectacle-craving Vegas crowd.