Of all the decisions made in free agency this offseason pertaining to the Golden State Warriors, Pat Spencer's choice to walk to the Phoenix Suns on a two-way deal is still the most quietly surprising.
Perhaps the Warriors decided they didn't want Spencer back for a fourth season, instead hoping to use their two-way spots on younger players with more long-term rotational upside. But it's hard to envision Golden State would've simply let Spencer walk ahead of a season where they'll need to dip heavily into the end of their rotation for consistent minutes.
We don't know what ultimately went into the outcome that led Spencer to Phoenix as he enters his final eligible two-way campaign. But we do know that, at least on the surface, his outlook there is markedly dimmer.
Phoenix stacked their backcourt this offseason, and Spencer's first preseason game with his new team certainly didn't provide any positive omens about what his role may be this season.
Pat Spencer may quickly be buried in the Suns' backcourt rotation as he looks for a new NBA opportunity
Spencer will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason, and since he'll no longer be eligible for a two-way deal, he will need to earn a true, guaranteed roster spot if he's going to stick around in the NBA. There are certainly deficits to Spencer's game, including his abilities as an isolation scorer and a passer, that make his departure from the Warriors far from the organization's biggest loss of the offseason.
But Steve Kerr has always seemed inclined to Spencer's hustle mentality and intense style of play. It seems likely that, had he still been in Golden State this season, he would've seen some relatively significant minutes—even if he didn't match the 18.6 he averaged last season in the Warriors' depleted rotation.
Phoenix simply has too many guards beyond their starting pairing of Jalen Green and Devin Booker to make that sort of room for Spencer. They brought back Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin this offseason, both of whom are major contributors to this team, and they also added Luke Kennard to the main roster as well as Jamaree Bouyea and Haywood Highsmith on non-guaranteed deals. It feels like the latter two will both make the roster, while Duop Reath and Kennedy Chandler will compete either for a guaranteed or a two-way spot before it's all said and done.
In Phoenix's opening preseason game against the Detroit Pistons, Spencer played the fewest minutes out of any player to see the floor for the Suns (7.25), posting just one point, one assist, and one steal in that span.
In a vacuum, Spencer fits the Suns' new style of physical, intense play perfectly, although he doesn't have the length to make the sort of impact they need on the defensive end of the floor. But considering what his workload was in his debut and what we know about the way this Phoenix rotation will likely shake out, there's obviously a very steep path for Spencer to carve out a real NBA role this season.
As he prepares for unrestricted free agency, that could be a disastrous outcome for the fourth-year guard.
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