No. 1: The Warriors are longshots just to make the playoffs
Last season the Golden State Warriors won 46 games, a respectable finish for a good basketball team. They weren't a true title contender, but they were a good team. Yet those 46 wins were only enough for 10th place in the Western Conference, and they had to go on the road for a single elimination showdown with Sacramento, a game they lost.
There are reasons for the Warriors to think that they can be better this season, from a solid trio of free-agent signings to the expectation for a full season from Draymond Green.
The problem is that the Western Conference has only gotten stronger around them. The Memphis Grizzlies are healthy and likely to bound back into the Top 6 of the conference. The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings finished just above them and look better.
The Houston Rockets were behind them and should be better. The San Antonio Spurs may have a top 10 player on their hands next year and added former Warriors Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes to help them be respectable. Even the Utah Jazz didn't trade Lauri Markkanen, so they aren't guaranteed to be bad; what if they cash in some trade assets to land Brandon Ingram? Of the teams around them in the standings, only the LA Clippers project to be worse next year.
Golden State is currently projected to win around 42-45 wins according to most sportsbooks. To pick one at random, ESPN Bet has the Warriors' line set at 43.5 wins, which is again 10th in the Western Conference, and just one win above the Rockets for 11th.
The Warriors could certainly defy those projections, but they will have to leapfrog multiple teams and then win through the Play-In Tournament just to get into the final-8 playoff field. Is that truly what Stephen Curry wants to be heading into during the tail end of his prime? A team with no realistic chance of contending and very likely not in the playoffs yet again?