Pacers vs. Warriors NBA expert prediction and odds for Friday, March 22 (Bet the OVER)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Golden State Warriors-Indiana Pacers matchup in the NBA on Friday night.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrates. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are coming off a much-needed win at home against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night, and they’ll look to do that again on Friday when they take on the Indiana Pacers. 

Indiana has picked up three consecutive outright wins as a road underdog, moving the team to 11-9-1 against the spread in that spot this season. Can it cover the spread against a Golden State team that is just 11-18 ATS as a home favorite this season? 

The Warriors are five-point favorites, but my favorite bet on this game actually isn’t on a side. I’ll break down why, plus share some key players to think about targeting in the prop market. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds for the Pacers-Warriors matchup on Friday: 

Pacers vs. Warriors odds, spread and total

Pacers vs. Warriors how to watch

  • Date: Friday, March 22
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Chase Center
  • How to watch (TV): Bally Sports Indiana, NBC Sports Bay Area
  • Pacers record: 39-31
  • Warriors record: 36-32

Pacers vs. Warriors injury reports

Pacers injury report

  • Quenton Jackson – questionable
  • Bennedict Mathurin – out
  • Obi Toppin – questionable
  • Isaiah Wong – questionable
  • Oscar Tshiebwe – questionable

Warriors injury report

  • Draymond Green – probable
  • Moses Moody – out

Pacers vs. Warriors key players to watch

Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton: Tyrese Haliburton has really struggled since the All-Star break, averaging 16.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game while shooting just 43.5 percent from the field and 21.6 percent from beyond the arc. Haliburton is coming off a 20-point game where he shot 9-for-13 from the field. Is that a sign that he’s turning things around? 

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry: Curry only needed to take nine shots in the Warriors’ blowout win over the Memphis Grizzlies, and he’s shot the ball well since returning from a short injury absence, putting up 24.0 points per game while shooting 47.2 percent from the field over his last three games. He’ll look to take advantage of a weak Indiana defense on Friday night. 

Pacers vs. Warriors prediction and pick

Golden State’s struggles at home have pulled me away from betting on a side in this one, but there is a Warriors home trend that I love tonight. 

Golden State is an impressive 22-14 on OVERs at Chase Center this season, the second-best rate of any team at home in the NBA. 

This goes right in line with what Indiana loves to do: Score the ball and play with pace. 

The Pacers rank No. 2 in the NBA in both offensive rating and pace this season, hitting the OVER at nearly a 50 percent clip (34-25-2). A big reason why the Pacers are under .500 on OVERs is due to the fact of the market adjusting for their high-octane offense as the season has progressed.

However, I think Golden State will help the Pacers go OVER this total, as the team ranks 13th in the NBA in offensive rating at home, but just 24th in the league in defensive rating. 

This sets up well for tonight to turn into a track meet. I’ll root for points in this inter-conference matchup. 

Pick: OVER 240 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.