Warriors vs. Heat NBA expert prediction and odds for Tuesday, March 26 (Fade Miami as home dog)

Two teams stuck in the mix for a play-in spot in their respective conferences face off on Tuesday night in Miami. 

The Miami Heat – who are in play for the No. 6 seed –  are looking to pick up a key win against the Golden State Warriors, who have slipped in the Western Conference standings and hold a narrow lead over the Houston Rockets for the No. 10 seed. 

Miami won the first meeting between these teams back in December, but Golden State has actually been a better team to bet on when on the road than at home this season. 

Does that factor into who covers in this matchup?

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Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for Tuesday’s contest: 

Warriors vs. Heat odds, spread and total

Warriors vs. Heat how to watch

• Date: Tuesday, March 26
• Time: 7:30 p.m. eST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to watch (TV): NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Florida
• Warriors record: 36-34
• Heat record: 39-32

Warriors vs. Heat injury report

Warriors injury report

• Trayce Jackson-Davis – questionable

Heat injury report

• Bam Adebayo – available
• Jamal Cain – available
• Caleb Martin – questionable
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. – questionable
• Kevin Love – questionable
• Josh Richardson – out
• Tyler Herro – out
• Duncan Robinson – out

Warriors vs. Heat key players to watch

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry: The Warriors need Curry to carry them in the worst way right now. The two-time MVP had 31 points in the team’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game, and he’s scored 25 or more points in four of his last five since dealing with an ankle injury. He’ll be the key for Miami defensively on Tuesday. 

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler: The Heat are in the hunt for the No. 6 seed in the East – or better – depending upon how they close out the 2023-24 regular season, and it starts with Butler being available and playing at a high level. Miami is 26-24 when Butler plays this season, and the six-time All-Star is averaging 21.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting an impressive 41.5 percent from 3. 

Warriors vs. Heat prediction and pick

I’m actually surprised to see Golden State favored in this game since Adebayo and Butler are expected to suit up, but there are a couple of trends that point to betting on the Warriors here. 

There’s no doubt that the Warriors need this game, as a ninth straight win by the Houston Rockets moved them to just half a game back of the Warriors for the No. 10 seed. 

Luckily, Golden State is facing arguably the worst team in the NBA when it comes to being a home underdog, as the Heat are just 1-7 against the spread in that spot this season. 

Golden State, on the other hand, is one of the best teams against the spread on the road, going 11-4 as a favorite. 

Miami did beat the Warriors back in December, but the team looks much different since then, moving Klay Thompson to the bench and getting a little younger across its rotation. As much as Miami is built for the playoffs – the team's regular season numbers are a bit concerning. 

The Heat – who are without one of their top scorers in Herro – are just 27th in the league in points per game and they rank 22nd in the league in offensive rating and 18th in net rating. Even with the Warriors’ recent struggles, the team is 11th in offensive rating and one spot ahead of the Heat in net rating. 

With multiple rotation players still questionable for Miami, I’ll take the desperate Warriors to win this game outright. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.