Warriors vs. Kings NBA expert prediction and odds for Western Conference Play-In Tournament

Can the Warriors advance through the play-in tournament? It starts on Tuesday against Sacramento.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

A chance to play for the No. 8 seed is on the line in the Western Conference on Tuesday night, as the No. 9-seeded Sacramento Kings host the No. 10-seeded Golden State Warriors in the play-in tournament.

The winner of Tuesday’s game will play the loser of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans matchup for a chance to earn the No. 8 seed in the West. 

Golden State is 0-2 all time in the play-in tournament, while this is the Kings’ first rodeo in the play-in. These teams played in the first round of the playoffs last season, going to seven games in what was an electric series. 

Can we get all of that packed into this one game on Tuesday? Oddsmakers seem to think so, setting the Warriors as slight favorites on the road. These teams split their season series 2-2, with the Kings taking the last two matchups. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Warriors vs. Kings odds, spread and total

Warriors vs. Kings how to watch

  • Date: Tuesday, April 16
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Golden 1 Center
  • How to watch (TV): TNT
  • Warriors record: 46-36
  • Kings record: 46-36

Warriors vs. Kings injury reports

Warriors injury report

  • Gary Payton II – out

Kings injury report

  • Kevin Huerter – out
  • Malik Monk – out

Warriors vs. Kings key players to watch

Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry: The two-time league MVP has given Sacramento problems this season, averaging 31.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists in four games. Curry is built to shine in the postseason, as he’s got more experience there than just about anyone in the league (outside of LeBron). The Kings need to slow him down to have any chance on Tuesday. 

Sacramento Kings

Domantas Sabonis: The Kings do have a matchup nightmare for Golden State in Sabonis, who is averaging 17.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists in four games against the Warriors this season. The Kings big man has been a triple-double machine, and he will have a size advantage down low against the Warriors’ frontcourt on Tuesday. 

Warriors vs. Kings prediction and pick

I have to take Golden State to win this game, especially since the Warriors have thrived as road favorites all season long.

Only the Dallas Mavericks (19-4 ATS as road favorites) have a better against the spread record when favored away from home than Golden State (15-6) this season. 

Plus, the Kings just haven’t been the same team since Malik Monk went down, going 4-6 without him this season. 

These teams both have a ton of offensive talent, but the playoff experience of Golden State wore the Kings down last season, and I think the same happens on Tuesday night.

Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and others are built for playoff basketball, and the Kings have really struggled at home, going just 18-23 against the spread during the regular season. 

I’ll lay the points with the Warriors to keep their season alive. 

Pick: Warriors -2.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.