Will the Warriors make the playoffs this season? (2024 NBA playoff odds set Golden State as longshot)

The Golden State Warriors' latest playoff odds as the team enters the final stretch of the 2023-24 regular season.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. / Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors have opened up a two-game lead on the Houston Rockets for the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference, but the team is still three games back of the No. 8 seed and five games back of the No. 6 seed with just a few games to play in the regular season. 

The Warriors will likely end up in the play-in tournament (oddsmakers have set them at -5000 to be there), which means the team will have to win at least one – and likely multiple – games to earn a playoff spot. 

If the Warriors remain in the No. 10 seed – or move up only to No. 9 – they’ll need to win two win-or-go-home games to earn the No. 8 seed in the West. 

That’s led to oddsmakers setting the playoff odds for Stephen Curry and company at plus odds – a sign that they aren’t likely to make the final playoff field in the West. 

Here’s a look at the Warriors’ playoff odds, and if you should consider betting on them this season: 

Warriors’ odds to make the playoffs in 2023-24 season

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Warriors are +225 to make the playoffs, which is an implied probability of just 30.77 percent. 

Golden State is going to be in a tough spot if it lands in the No. 10 seed, as right now it would have to play the Los Angeles Lakers and then the loser of a Phoenix Suns-Sacramento Kings matchup to earn the No. 8 seed. 

If there is one thing going in Golden State’s favor, it’s that the team is 22-15 straight up on the road, and as the No. 10 seed, it would play both play-in games on the road – if it can win the first one. 

At home, the Warriors are struggling (which is pretty shocking) going 18-19 straight up. 

To put Golden State playoff odds in perspective, here’s a look at some other teams in the play-in fight in the West: 

  • Sacramento Kings: -150 (implied probability of 60.0 percent)
  • Los Angeles Lakers: -120 (implied probability of 54.55 percent)
  • Dallas Mavericks: -10000 (implied probability of 99.01 percent)
  • Phoenix Suns: -285 (implied probability of 74.03 percent)
  • New Orleans Pelicans: -1600 (implied probability of 94.12 percent)

So, even though one of these teams will miss the playoffs, oddsmakers have every one of the squads ahead of Golden State in this race favored to make the postseason. 

That’s not a great sign. 

Should you bet on the Warriors to make the playoffs?

Since every other team is favored to make the playoffs in this race, I do think there is some value to betting on Golden State.

Not only have the Warriors played well against the Lakers (the likely No. 9 seed) this season, going 2-1, but they also have chances to make up ground on Dallas (two games remaining), New Orleans (one game remaining) and Los Angeles (one game remaining) this regular season. 

I’m not saying Golden State will win all of those matchups, but one or two wins could thrust the team into a better standing if other teams fall off.

Plus, the Suns (the current No. 8 seed) have the hardest remaining schedule in the league, according to Tankathon, and the Kings (the current No. 7 seed) are fourth in that category. 

It’s possible that a losing streak could put one of those teams within striking distance for Golden State to move up a spot. 

I wouldn't count out Steph Curry and the Warriors just yet. 

If you want to bet on the Warriors’ odds to make the playoffs, make sure to download DraftKings! New users that sign up with the link below will receive $150 in bonus bets if they simply place a $5 wager!

Odds update periodically and are subject to change.