After their blockbuster mid-season acquisition of Jimmy Butler, the Golden State Warriors are largely locked into a core group of players for the next two seasons.
That doesn't mean that the Warriors don't have significant trade flexibility to drastically alter their team, but they will have less free agency decisions in comparison to other rivals around the league.
Of Golden State's top 12 players in Steve Kerr's rotation, only three of them are set to hit free agency this offseason. There's a clear two-year timeline here before Butler, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green all conclude their current contracts at the end of the 2026-27 season, by which time Brandin Podziemski (and Trayce Jackson-Davis) will also be up for new deals.
Ranking Warriors free agents by likelihood to return
After dealing with the free agency situations of Green and the now departed Klay Thompson in each of the past two offseasons, attention now turns to Jonathan Kuminga and whether the Warriors will recommit to the fourth-year forward this summer.
Yet Kuminga isn't the only player of which Golden State will have to make a decision on, so let's rank five Warrior free agents by likelihood to return for next season:
1. Kevon Looney
The veteran center will become a free agent for the first time since signing a three-year, $22.5 million deal in the 2022 offseason. Since then, Looney has lost his starting role over the past 12 months and become a bit-part bench player.
There is still a strong chance that Looney returns given the bond between player and franchise, often leading to the narrative that the 3x champion is far more valuable to Golden State than elsewhere. The 29-year-old has been solid this season, but it's hard to see him earning more than a minimum contract based on recent market value and the tax aprons that now inhibit team spending.
It's difficult to see a rival team paying overs to lure Looney away from the Bay, and it's equally as difficult to see the Warriors having no interest at all in bringing him back. Hence why he may be the most likely of the free agents to return for next season and potentially beyond.
2. Gary Payton II
Payton is in a similar boat to Looney -- a trusted veteran player who's role and minutes can be sporadic but at his best is still an important cog. Aside from a couple of injury concerns, the 32-year-old has been in sparkling form since the All-Star break, averaging 9.9 points and 3.2 rebounds while shooting a drastically improved 46.2% from 3-point range.
It's this form that may have caught the attention of rivals though, and could therefore make Payton more attractive as a free agent option in comparison to Looney. The Warriors will likely have interest in bringing the defensive-minded guard back for next season, but they may be unwilling to do so if another team offers more than the minimum.
3. Jonathan Kuminga
The biggest question mark for the Warriors in free agency and one that looks like it could go either way at this point. Kuminga is restricted as opposed to Looney and Payton, but he may be more likely to depart given the sheer numbers involved.
It will really come down to what rivals are willing to offer -- if a team like the Brooklyn Nets come in with a deal in excess of $25-30 million per year, it may be hard to justify Golden State matching that for a player who's still not guaranteed 25 minutes per game nor a place in Kerr's closing lineup.
4. Kevin Knox II
Knox is a big success story of Golden State's G League program, having impressed enough to earn a pair of 10-day contracts before signing a rest of season contract on March 22.
The former ninth overall pick hasn't played any legitimate rotation minutes since then though, and while there's a chance he returns on a minimum deal, the Warriors will probably look for a better and more proven option in free agency first.
5. Pat Spencer
After starting the season on a two-way contract, Spencer became a beneficiary of the Butler trade and the subsequent opening of roster spots. The 28-year-old has appeared in 37 games for Golden State this season, yet has never truly been part of a fully healthy rotation.
As cool a story as Spencer has been since his days as an elite Lacrosse player, the Warriors should be looking for an upgrade in free agency when it comes to guard depth at the end of the roster.