After a recent 108-96 loss to the Indiana Pacers, the Golden State Warriors have fallen back to a 19-19 record as they clearly lag on both ends of the floor.
On the second night of a back-to-back, both the Warriors' veteran stars, Draymond Green and Steph Curry, sat out the game in order to manage their work load as the regular season wears on.
Yet, as the Warriors enter the dog days of the season, one thing has become abundantly clear; even when Steph Curry is able to play at 100%, this team lacks the dimension to back him up on offense.
Warriors are once again too reliant on Stephen Curry
Even upon a surface-level glance, things look pretty bad for the Warriors offensively. They have failed to score 100 points in three of their last four games and six of their last 13. In the past month alone, they have been blown out by the Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers and the Sacramento Kings. They currently sit at the 11th seed in the Western Conference, behind the struggling Phoenix Suns and surging Kings.
Upon a deeper dive into the numbers, things somehow get worse. Through their last 15 games, the Warriors have produced a 108.8 offensive rating per 100 possessions, tied with the Los Angeles Clippers for sixth-worst in the NBA in that span. The teams that sit near them in these rankings are genuine bottom-feeders, including the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards.
While Curry has let his age show at times this season, including in his much-discussed 2-point outing against the Grizzlies on December 19, the numbers also show that he is not to blame for the Warriors' offensive decline.
With Steph on the court this season, the Warriors have a 119.3 offensive rating, which would be good for second in the NBA behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Steph off the court, the Warriors have a 104.3 offensive rating, a 15-point discrepancy and the worst in the league by almost an entire point.
In short, the Warriors need to find production beyond Steph in order to compete on offense. The loaded Western Conference will not provide much room for error, and the season is quickly slipping away from a team with hopes for the postseason.
Warriors desperately lack firepower on the roster
Every star player naturally takes some of the team's offense with him when he heads to the bench, but the Warriors' case this season is particularly concerning. For example, the 2021-22 Warriors posted an offensive rating only half a point higher in Curry's on-court minutes than during his off-court minutes.
Compare this to the 15-point discrepancy present this season, and it has become clear that the Warriors lack of depth and dimensionality has caused this dependency to become outsized, dragging the Warriors offense to the bottom of the league.
Curry and Green are the only two starters to post a positive difference in the team's offensive rating when they're on the court versus off. Recent acquisition Dennis Schröder has, despite beginning to look more comfortable in the offense, brought down the team's offensive rating immensely in his on-court minutes. In fact, the team has been 15 points worse when he is on the court.
Recently, injuries and a depleted bench have certainly not helped this trend. Jonathan Kuminga, who is expected to miss at least three weeks with a sprained ankle, was vital in Golden State's ability to drive to the rim and create offense on the interior. The Warriors' lack of another player on the roster who can reliably stimulate offense in the half court, beyond Steph and Kuminga, represents a major concern.
Although Andrew Wiggins has become more aggressive recently, he is only shooting 53.4% on layups, nine points below the team average. Rotation pieces such as Buddy Hield and Lindy Waters III are so dependent upon the three-point shot that their minutes are almost redundant. Add in players such as Kevon Looney, who impart minimal impact on offense, and the reason for Golden State's struggles becomes clear.
The Warriors have so many players that can only do one thing, most of them middling perimeter shooters, that their reliance upon Steph to score 30+ points a night and lead the offense has exposed a major flaw in their structure.
The Warriors need to quickly make tweaks to their offensive structure or personnel in order to overcome the trends which have dragged them to a .500 record and in jeopardy of missing the Play-In Tournament let alone actually making the playoffs.