The Golden State Warriors have been mocked for their failed "Two Timelines" plan to continue contending around Stephen Curry while also building a nucleus for the future. Yet looking back, the problem was less about the plan and more about the execution: the Two Timelines could have worked.
The Warriors are the only team in the league to not make a single trade or signing since the start of free agency a full month ago. They are currently locked into a staring context with Jonathan Kuminga, their onetime No. 7 pick who is a restricted free agent. He is looking for a mammoth new contract, while the Warriors are not interested in overpaying a player they don't trust. Despite all of his flashes, Kuminga has never put it all together for Golden State. And the watching NBA world is wasting no time getting off their takes on the "Two Timelines" plan in San Francisco.
Warriors owner Joe Lacob had a vision for constructing a win-now, develop-now team that could propel the team to more championships in the future as rising young stars took on more of the burden as the veteran core faded. The Warriors went through a two-year slump where they added three teenage lottery picks rather than flipping them for veteran help. The goal was win now, win later, the so-called "Two Timelines" approach.
That vision has been fractured. They did win a title immediately after drafting those teenagers, leaning on their veterans rather than the up-and-comers. Mission accomplished. But since then, James Wiseman has been traded and is barely an NBA-level player, Moses Moody is merely a fine role player (there is still upside there, but it has not been realized yet), and Jonathan Kuminga is one of the league's most polarizing players and any day now could be on a new team. The Warriors used their draft picks on future talent, and those bets haven't paid off.
Other contending teams usually mortgage those picks to add older, more established talent. The Milwaukee Bucks have continually traded picks to maintain a winning team around Giannis Antetokounmpo. The same goes for the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, although their decisions have also been about keeping the payroll down. The Boston Celtics traded picks for Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves cleared the decks to add star talent.
The Warriors, however, saw an opportunity to add high-upside talent, return to competing for championships, and extend the window of Stephen Curry by getting him real star-level help. The franchise has been mocked for their approach, both the audacity and the results. And while it's true that it was always going to be a long shot, the reality is that the failure here -- and it IS a failure -- came not from the vision, but from the execution.
The Warriors could have drafted future stars - they just didn't
The "Two Timelines" approach always depending on nailing the draft picks. It was a high-risk, high-reward plan, and it hinged on taking those lottery picks and turning them into future stars. A longshot, yes, but one they could have accomplished.
Take James Wiseman, the team's first selection. They went into the 2020 NBA Draft with the No. 2 overall pick after Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry combined for five games in a "gap year" season. They used the pick on Wiseman, a huge, athletic center like the Warriors had never had during the Curry era; even at the time the pick was questioned.
In the weeks leading into the draft, however, many NBA and draft analysts theorized that the Warriors were a prime candidate to trade back a few slots, pick up an asset and draft Tyrese Haliburton. It was no secret that the Warriors loved him. Wendell Carter Jr. and the No. 4 pick was one rumored trade, for example. Or Mitchell Robinson and the No. 8 pick. Both have been solid centers and much better than Wiseman, an absolute bust.
Move on to the next year, when the Warriors drafted Jonathan Kuminga at No. 7 and Moses Moody at No. 14. At the time, Joe Lacob was ecstatic about both players and was a prominent voice in the war room pushing the team to pick both players.
What if things had gone a little differently, however? One pick after Kuminga was drafted, the Orlando Magic took Franz Wagner, who is a fringe All-Star and signed a max rookie extension. A few picks after the Moody selection, All-Star type players like Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III and Jalen Johnson went off the board.
It is therefore very possible that the Warriors came out of those two drafts not with a bust, a 5th-starter and a project, and instead had Tyrese Haliburton, Franz Wagner, Trey Murphy III and Wendell Carter Jr. Swap in Jalen Johnson instead of Murphy. Or Sengun.
That is a team that nailed the Two Timelines approach. That is a team that would have a star-studded roster right now with Draymond Green in a complementary role and Stephen Curry not bearing the full offensive load. Perhaps all of those players are still around, or perhaps the Warriors flipped one of them for value, but the reality is that they would be in a very different place right now.
Blame Joe Lacob for his role in picking the wrong players with three consecutive lottery picks. Blame him for continuing to push for retaining Kuminga. But don't blame him for dreaming, as his big dreams led to a dynasty. Two Timelines could have worked - and that's the most painful reality of them all.