The Golden State Warriors have long searched for a stretch center capable of spacing the floor and maximizing Stephen Curry’s gravity. Quinten Post, the 52nd pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, has partially fit that profile so far, though his defensive limitations have been exposed recently.
While Post still projects as a long-term piece for Golden State, it’s veteran Al Horford who has emerged as the more seamless fit. After a rocky start to his Warriors tenure, Horford has settled in nicely, with his three-point shooting, high-level defense, and ability to find the open man proving paramount to Golden State’s success.
Horford provides similar offense but sharply different impact
While both players have been nearly identical offensively — Post averaging eight points per game on 35.2% from three and Horford seven points on 35.5% from deep— their impact on the other end has largely differed.
Despite the substantial gap in sample size, the contrast is striking. In the 40 minutes Horford has shared the floor with the Curry–Moody–Green trio, the Warriors have posted a 94.3 defensive rating and a 134.9 offensive rating. By comparison, in 170 minutes with Post in that same lineup, Golden State’s defensive rating jumps to 119.6, while its offensive rating drops to 115.2.
On a broader level, the Warriors have simply been better with Horford on the floor than with Post. Since Christmas, Golden State's net rating is up to +13.9 with the veteran on the floor, compared to –7.9 with the Dutchman.
However, with the 39-year-old limited to roughly 24 minutes per game and sitting out at least one game of back-to-backs, the 2024 second-rounder will still be needed.
Relieving Draymond and unlocking the offense
Draymond Green has benefited significantly from both players’ ability to space the floor, and even more so from Horford’s defensive solidity. Playing the five has long been a burden for Green; while the Warriors can reap schematic benefits from it, the wear and tear on the 6-foot-6 forward is undeniable.
With Horford alongside him, Green can not only matchup against players his size, but also hone in on playmaking rather than looking to score. This season, the Warriors are 17–9 when Green scores fewer than 10 points, but more importantly 7–2 when he dishes out more than seven assists and 11–5 when he commits fewer than three turnovers.
Another key box for the Warriors to check is the shooting around Draymond Green and either Horford or Post. While Stephen Curry’s production is almost a given, it’s often the supporting cast that tips the scale for Golden State. Since Jan. 13, Moses Moody has knocked down 33 three-pointers— tied for the fourth-most in the NBA over that span — while averaging over 15 points per game. That offensive surge from the fifth-year guard has helped keep the Warriors afloat following Jimmy Butler’s season-ending injury.
The fifth starter dilemma
With basketball being a five-on-five sport, the Warriors must assess their options and settle on a fifth starter. That evaluation may become clearer once the trade deadline passes, as the lineup could change dramatically if Golden State were to net Giannis Antetokounmpo.
For now, the two most obvious options are guard Brandin Podziemski and forward Jonathan Kuminga. Podz would provide additional playmaking, while JK would bring size, athleticism, and rim pressure. While Kuminga has yet to log any minutes alongside the four-man group cited above, Podziemski has — and the early returns have been convincing.
In the 23 minutes Podziemksi played with the Curry–Moody–Green–Horford quartet, the Warriors have posted a 123.5 offensive rating and a jaw-dropping 71.2 defensive rating. The sample size is admittedly small, but the lineup has worked so far.
With Kuminga still nursing the injury he suffered last Thursday in Dallas, Podziemski will have an opportunity to start and put those numbers to the test against a hard-nosed Detroit Pistons team on Friday night.