For all intents and purposes, the Golden State Warriors' success this season depends upon the returns of Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody to full health.
Moody, of course, is an important rotational defender and perimeter shooter, and he'll have a chance to start when he returns in the backcourt alongside Stephen Curry. But Butler, more particularly, can help answer the Warriors' prayers when he returns at mid-season from the torn ACL he suffered in January.
The Warriors need him to function, by the end of the season, as a true secondary scorer alongside Curry and Kristaps Porzingis if they're going to stand any chance of fighting their way through the Play-In Tournament and into a bona fide playoff berth. He doesn't need to be at the top of his game athletically, but he needs to provide some significant additional scoring in order to make this rotation whole again.
This might make it seem like the regular season, in many ways, will just be an effort to tread water until Butler returns. But the Warriors need it to be more than that.
They need each of the peripheral members of their rotation to show improvement and cohesion, and if they're able to bring Butler back in January with a winning record already at their disposal, they'll be in prime position to establish themselves as sneaky underdogs heading into the postseason.
The Warriors need Jimmy Butler to return to full strength— but they can't afford to simply wait for him to save them
As many calls as there were this offseason for the Warriors to pursue one of the many stars available on the trade market, the fact of the matter is that Butler already was their big swing of this era. They traded a first-round pick and four rotational players in exchange for the six-time All Star, and they were counting upon him to provide what they needed in terms of starpower next to Curry.
It's uncertain if he'll ever reach those heights again as he returns from an ACL injury at the age of 37. But moving off of his contract hasn't truly been an option this offseason.
Golden State needs to wait and hope that he can provide what they need by the end of this regular season.
Still, though, this team needs to do more than tread water over their first 35-40 games. With a starting lineup of Porzingis, Draymond Green, Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandin Podziemski/De'Anthony Melton, and Curry, they'll be able to hang with most teams on a night-to-night basis. If Podziemski can carry over the momentum he started to gather towards the end of last season and Lendeborg can be an immediately impactful two-way contributor, this team's chances at remaining competitive suddenly look a whole lot better.
What would be disastrous is if Butler walks into a defeated, downtrodden, and incohesive rotation upon his return. Golden State has fallen short over the past two campaigns primarily because of how much energy they needed to expend forcing their way into the Play-In Tournament in the latter portions of the regular season.
Butler cannot be expected to both return to full strength and pull the Warriors into the seventh or eighth seed by sheer force of will. But if Golden State is already in pole position for one of those spots when Butler returns, they can give him the time and space he needs to get his feet back under him on an NBA court.
As much as Butler's eventual return may represent the Warriors' salvation in terms of their postseason hopes, it cannot represent the central orbit of their regular season. This team needs to be competitive without Butler if they want to have any hope of a successful campaign.
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