Much of the NBA this offseason, including the Golden State Warriors, will be keeping the same rapt attention on Giannis Antetokounmpo that they have for the past few months.
At the end of the regular season, it appeared as though Antetokounmpo's situation with the Milwaukee Bucks had come to a head. He publicly expressed his frustration at how Milwaukee handled his rehab, going so far as to invite a league investigation into their practices. Antetokounmpo won't be eligible for an extension until October, but it's expected his fate will be decided well before that.
The Bucks are preparing to lose their superstar, and much of the league is waiting patiently for the final domino to fall. The Warriors, for their part, were once expected to be among the forefront of these discussions.
But they moved their two most aggregate-friendly contracts in their trade for Kristaps Porzingis, and the rumor was that their draft-capital-heavy offer to the Bucks at the trade deadline wasn't as enticing as they might have hoped. Now, with changes coming to the NBA's Draft Lottery system, NBA insider Jake Fischer has provided some troubling context for any continuation of the pursuit— changes to the Lottery could leave teams more hesitant to both move their picks and accept picks for their stars.
"The NBA's much-discussed new “3-2-1” lottery format is expected to win approval in a May 28 Board of Governors vote to be implemented next season.... Those impeding changes have led various NBA executives here to tell me that they think we're going to see fewer future picks traded for star players in the near term … at least until front offices get a better feel for how the looming tweaks to the NBA's lottery system affect proceedings." Jake Fischer
Warriors' most valuable trade assets could soon be caught in limbo
Whether you believe the Draft Lottery system needs reform or not, it's certainly coming. The NBA is fed-up with teams' tanking efforts, and they believe that a relative flattening of the lottery odds is the correct way to go about it in the short-term.
For teams like Golden State, though, this leaves a lot of uncertainty. The Warriors' most valuable trade assets are their four tradeable first-round picks, which they have in their possession between now and 2031. Any move for Antetokounmpo would likely require all four picks in addition to whatever young talent the Warriors would be willing to part with.
On the one hand, if teams are more hesitant to move their picks due to these ambiguities, the Warriors' package might be more attractive if they're willing to go all-in. On the other, if Milwaukee sees the value of both high-lottery and non-lottery picks decreasing, they may shift their focus in the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes even further in the direction of young, league-ready talent.
The Warriors, frankly, don't have much they can afford to part with. Brandin Podziemski is extension-eligible, and it's hard to imagine he'll move the needle in the first place. Moses Moody might not play at all next season as he rehabs his knee injury. Will Richard, as impressive as he was as a rookie, likely won't do much to move Milwaukee in Golden State's direction either.
If the NBA as a whole becomes more hesitant to move or accept picks in trades, it would be bad news for the Warriors as they seek out an additional star to add to their roster.
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