The Golden State Warriors fate has essentially been sealed since Stephen Curry went down just before the All-Star Break. If they want to participate in the playoffs this year, they're going to need to fight their way through the Play-In Tournament yet again.
If they were the seventh or eighth seed, this reality wouldn't be so brutal. Curry gives the Warriors a shot any time he's on the court, especially in a one-game scenario. But needing to win two games, especially on the road, could prove to be nearly impossible for this banged-up Golden State team.
There's reason for optimism still. Curry appears to be close to a return, and the team's complementary players have had some nice performances in his absence. But the other play-in teams— the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, and Portland Trail Blazers— have all shown a level of fight and scrappiness that the Warriors simply don't possess this season.
Now, things are close to somehow getting worse. With Portland's 114-104 victory over Los Angeles on March 31, Golden State is now in danger of facing the Clippers in the 9/10-seed matchup. No disrespect to the Trail Blazers, but this would easily be the worst-case scenario for the Warriors.
The Warriors must hope the Clippers can hold on to the 8 seed
Los Angeles has had a strange journey this season. After starting off the campaign abysmally, and ultimately trading away both Ivica Zubac and James Harden at the deadline, they've found their form over the past couple of months. Before their loss to Portland, they had won five in a row. Since Feb. 1, they are seventh in the league in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating.
The Trail Blazers, however, are breathing down their necks. With five games to go in their schedule, they sit just a half game back of the Clippers for possession of the eighth seed and a spot in the first Play-In game. They've won seven of their last 10.
Their remaining matchups are by no means easy. They will face both the Denver Nuggets and the San Antonio Spurs. But the Clippers, for their own part, will face the Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder over their final six games. The two teams will face off one more time on April 10— a matchup that could easily determine the final play-in seedings.
Portland is an intriguing young team, but they obviously would be the Warriors' pick for a 9/10-seed game opponent. Kawhi Leonard has been on an absolute tear this season, averaging 28.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting 38% from 3-point range. Leonard is the type of player that can absolutely wreck a single-game matchup, and Los Angeles has the talent surrounding him to make things even more difficult.
The Warriors already have a steep hill to climb. Even if they somehow survive the Play-In, they would likely face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. But if the Trail Blazers ultimately claim the eighth seed, their situation could rapidly get worse.