Squint and you see a pathway to a respectable end to the season for the Golden State Warriors. Kristaps Porzingis proves to be a perfect fit in the frontcourt, Stephen Curry returns rested for the stretch run, and the Warriors make a push into the playoff bracket and are a formidable opponent for whoever faces them.
Such an outcome takes a lot of squinting and even more ignoring the reality of the situation, however. The reality of what faces this team is overwhelming, and any hope of making a run this year is engulfed by the uphill battle that they face.
The Warriors face an uphill climb
Golden State currently sits at 29-27, in eighth place and heading straight for the Play-In Tournament. They are 5.5 games behind the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers, one of whom they would need to catch to get out of the Play-In Tournament. In the process, they would also need to pass the Phoenix Suns, who are 33-24 and 3.5 games up themselves.
The odds of catching two of those three teams are slim indeed, especially with Curry nowhere near a return. The Warriors’ offense has been anemic without him this season, and no game is a guaranteed victory without both Curry and Butler, whose season-ending ACL tear started this extinguishing of hope in Golden State.
That means the Warriors are on track to land in the Play-In Tournament, forced to fight their way just to make the playoff field. It’s a position they are quite familiar with, having landed in this range in three of the last five seasons, but it’s not an ideal starting point. Twice, they were sent home before ever reaching the playoff field.
Last year, they managed to upset the Houston Rockets as the No. 7 seed, but there is no such easy target this time around. The San Antonio Spurs have a 7’5” alien driving them to the top of the Western Conference, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the reigning champions with the greatest guard the league has seen since Steph. It would be a shock if anyone caught one of those two teams for the top two records in the Western Conference.
That means two titanic opponents await the Warriors if they manage to play their way out of the Play-In Tournament - not a given on its own, with the Suns and LA Clippers playing so well of late. But even a win would be merely a pyrrhic victory with Wembanyama or the Thunder awaiting.
The Warriors want to remain competitive while Stephen Curry is still playing at a high level, to give him a chance each and every season. That’s the position the team was in in January before Butler tore his ACL. Now their outlook is much bleaker, their roster much weaker, their chances much thinner. If Curry isn't at full health, all hope is gone; even if he returns at full strength, the odds are long and the journey long.
Golden State’s uphill climb is no mere hill; it’s a sheer ascent up the Cliffs of Insanity. And the idea that they could win a playoff series this year? It’s inconceivable.