For the Golden State Warriors, Brandin Podzmiemski's looming free agency represents one of the major storylines of this season.
If he's able to carve out a starting role next to Stephen Curry in training camp and show more consistency as a scorer and as a ball-handler, he could secure himself a serious payday next offseason relative to how his career has unfolded to this point. But if he loses that spot to De'Anthony Melton and remains primarily a bench piece over the course of the season, Golden State may be able to get him at a discount compared to where projections have fallen for his next contract so far.
Ultimately, we'll need to see how the season unfolds. But the latest update about Curry's knee injury, which forced him to miss a sizable portion of the last campaign, could create room for Podziemski to perform no matter what.
Per Monte Poole of NBC Sports Bay Area, speaking on his Dubs Talk podcast, there's still some lingering concern in Golden State about Curry's knee and how they'll manage it over the course of the regular season. With the way this roster has unfolded, Golden State simply can't afford for Curry to miss significant time.
If there are stints of rest for Curry over the course of the regular season, though, that could open up a major door for Podziemski as he fights to maximize his value on his next contract.
Brandin Podziemski could have the opportunity of a lifetime in front of him if Curry needs to miss time
Even if Podziemski secures the starting backcourt spot next to Curry at the start of the season, he'll still be limited in his touches and opportunities within the Warriors' rotation. He'll likely be, at best, the third offensive option behind Curry and Kristaps Porzingis, and even rookie forward Yaxel Lendeborg has a chance to surpass him for that title.
But we've seen what Podziemski can be when he's given lead ball-handling duties. When Curry went down late last season, Podziemski was one of the main pieces that helped keep the Warriors afloat. He averaged 17.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while shooting 38% from beyond the arc after he stepped into the starting lineup in his final 24 games of last season.
If those numbers are replicable at all, we're likely looking at an extension in range of $23-$25 million annually for Podziemski. But the only way he truly gets to flash that skill set is if Curry needs to take a step back at any point during the regular season.
It doesn't seem like there's imminent danger of injury on Curry's part. Golden State, though, will likely want to avoid unnecessary wear-and-tear on Curry's knee as the season goes on—especially if there are concerns that he hasn't completely healed from last year's issues.
As much as Melton is the right fit defensively next to Curry, he doesn't have the upside or confidence as a ball-handler that Podziemski does.
If Curry needs to miss, say, 20-25 games this season in order to ensure his health for the Play-In Tournament or postseason, each and every one of those matchups represents a chance for Podziemski to state his case for an extension.
It's not an opportunity he can afford to miss.
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