Entering the 2025 NBA offseason, Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors appeared to be headed toward two possible outcomes. One path would lead the two sides to agreeing to a new contract, while the other would result in a sign-and-trade that would ideally produce a mutually-beneficial change of scenery.
Unfortunately, the worst-case scenario is beginning to take shape as Kuminga gives serious consideration to accepting his qualifying offer for the 2025-26 season.
Kuminga is a restricted free agent, which grants Golden State the leverage to match any offer he receives. With a select few teams possessing financial flexibility, the likelihood of a sign-and-trade inevitably increased. Unfortunately, that isn't the only option being considered.
According to Shams Charania and Anthony Slater of ESPN, Kuminga is willing to accept his qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2026 if he can't secure his preferred future in 2025.
"That negotiation haggle is another example of the ongoing tug-of-war for control of Kuminga's future. It's why, despite the short- and long-term financial risk, Kuminga is expressing a willingness to potentially take the qualifying offer. He would be declining nearly $14 million extra next season but would give himself an implied no-trade clause and a shot at unrestricted free agency next summer at 23 years old."
Kuminga accepting his qualifying offer would give the Warriors one last chance to appeal to him as a long-term asset, but the alternative is a disastrous turn of events.
Jonathan Kuminga is willing to accept his qualifying offer
Charania and Slater reported that Golden State extended a two-year contract offer to Kuminga worth $45 million. It was less per season than the three years and $82 million that he'd requested, but that wasn't the point of contention between the two negotiating parties.
The Warriors' offer included a second-year team option and the removal of the built-in no-trade clause—factors that ultimately resulted in Kuminga declining the offer.
Kuminga's frame of mind is understood and documented. He feels as though his development is no longer a priority for the organization, and after four seasons and steady spells of erratic playing time, he's ready to move on and play for a team that's willing to make his improvement a focal point.
That's unfortunately resulted in Kuminga weighing whether or not he should accept his qualifying offer, which would greatly limit Golden State's options on the external improvement front.
By accepting his qualifying offer, Kuminga would be on the Warriors' payroll for the 2025-26 season before entering unrestricted free agency next summer. In that scenario, Golden State could realistically lose a former top-10 pick without receiving a return on their investment.
The Warriors could conceivably trade Kuminga before the 2026 NBA trade deadline, but his qualifying offer is worth just $7.9 million—a figure that would be easy to move, but would limit the value of the return.
Had Kuminga accepted the Warriors' $45 million offer, the franchise could've traded him for an impact player on a similarly-priced deal. Instead, they could be forced to explore a trade market with limited appeal, as few starting-caliber players are making less than $8 million in 2025—and those who are, are unlikely to be traded.
Kuminga seems to have a market on the sign-and-trade front, with the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings submitting proposals in the range of $90 million across four seasons. That offers some level of hope that the Warriors can add quality in exchange for a former lottery pick.
Unfortunately, if the Warriors are unwilling to agree to a sign-and-trade, the worst-case Kuminga scenario could come true and devastate their future plans.