Al Horford has a compelling reason not to sign with the Warriors

The Golden State Warriors have been considered the favorites to sign free agent center Al Horford for two weeks now, but there has been no official confirmation -- and certainly no contract officially signed. As new suitors emerge, the Warriors have competition from a familiar source, the Atlanta Hawks. Horford's former team can offer him something that the Warriors cannot: a no-trade clause.

Al Horford is the quintessential veteran addition for any NBA contender. He is a proven winner, making the playoffs in all but two seasons of his 18-year career and playing a major role on multiple NBA Finals teams, including 2024's championship team with the Boston Celtics. He remains a gifted defender and a willing high-volume shooter. Every team wants a player like Al Horford.

That is why he received so much interest over the last few weeks as he hit free agency, despite being 39 years old. The five-time All-Star has transitioned gracefully into being a super role player, and his ability to play "3-and-D" from the center position has teams lining up to add him -- at the right price, of course.

That has been the advantage the Golden State Warriors have had during negotiations. Not only are they likely to hand him a large role -- although both Horford and his team likely don't want that role to be too large to keep his aging limbs fresh for the postseason -- but they are willing to give him most, if not all, of their Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. That could max out at $5.7 million for this upcoming season.

Other teams have been linked to Horford, but they are generally only able to offer him the veteran's minimum. That's the case for teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, the Atlanta Hawks, the Los Angeles Lakers and likely his former team in the Boston Celtics. Given Horford's experience that number does come out to $3.6 million, hardly chump change, but also less than what the Warriors are offering.

Yet something is in the way of the Warriors signing Horford. Perhaps they have a casual agreement in place just awaiting the end of the Jonathan Kuminga negotiations, as has been commonly thought, but ESPN's Marc Spears reported that the Warriors wish Horford had already signed and hasn't. Could Horford be contemplating retirement? Signing with a different team?

The more time that passes without an official contract, the more likely it is that Horford's final destination is not the Bay Area. And when the other suitors are examined, one in particular stands out -- the team that drafted Al Horford, the Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks have a secret weapon to sign Al Horford

The Atlanta Hawks make some sense on the surface for Horford. He played the first nine years of his career there and left on amicable terms, and still lives there part of the year. Joining the Hawks full-time would likely be extremely comfortable and convenient for the Horford family.

What's more, the Hawks are in need of another big man, for reasons very familiar to Horford: Kristaps Porzingis, their starting center, is guaranteed to miss significant time this season. Atlanta knows that Horford and Porzingis work well together, both sharing the court and working in a platoon with one another.

The Hawks cannot offer as large of a role as the Warriors, nor as much money unless they make some changes. They do have a secret weapon, however, that the Warriors do not have: Atlanta can offer Al Horford a no-trade clause.

Such power is difficult to obtain in the NBA; to get a true no-trade clause, you have to have spent at least eight seasons in the NBA, spent four with the team you are signing with, and be signing a brand new contract -- not an extension. Those factors rarely come together for a player with the leverage to demand such a boon.

The Hawks could offer it to Horford to convince him to sign in Atlanta, however. The Warriors are categorically unable to match that level of control. They can verbally make any agreements that they want to promise not to trade Horford, but it's clear from their history that they are not afraid to add a player and then trade him back out in the same season; ask Kyle Anderson, D'Anthony Melton and Dennis Schroder from this year alone.

Horford may want control more than the extra two million. He may want comfort and convenience. He may look at the Hawks and believe in their roster enough to think he can play high-leverage postseason minutes with their team in a weakened Eastern Conference just as much as with the Warriors in the bloodbath of the West.

Add it all up, and the Warriors should absolutely see the Hawks as a legitimate threat to sign Al Horford. Whatever is in the way of getting a deal done needs to be reevaluated, because if they continue to drag their feet, their perfect free agent fit may be walking somewhere else.