With an experienced roster coming into the 2025-26 season, the Golden State Warriors are feeling confident that they can make a run and should be a playoff team in the NBA's Western Conference.
However, ESPN's recent projections may be a bit too bullish on the Warriors. Analyst Kevin Pelton projected win totals for every NBA team and has Golden State winning 56 games which, under his projections, would make them the second-best team in the NBA after the Oklahoma City Thunder.
ESPN's projections model doesn't take into account Warriors' age
Pelton used a stats-based projection model to come to these predictions, but what they may not factor into the equation is how Golden State's roster is constructed.
Their projected starting lineup has four players on the wrong side of 35 in Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford. That is a lot of experience in one lineup, but it also presents a lot of opportunity for injuries which the Warriors seem to be making contingency plans for.
If age and rest were not a factor, then the 56 wins may not seem quite so outlandish. But when one considers the fact that head coach Steve Kerr is going to have to be mindful of how many minutes he plays his starters and ensure that his stars get rest, it becomes difficult to see this team being an absolute juggernaut in the regular season.
This team seems to be built to succeed in the postseason, which means they need to get to the playoffs still in one piece. That is going to require some hard decisions from Kerr where maybe he has to rest Curry for a minute or two more than he otherwise would like to, or maybe be cautious with Butler and keep him out even if he is dealing with a relatively minor injury.
All of those decisions, as frustrating as they might be in the moment, will be in service of preserving the team as best as possible for a championship run. The Warriors would gladly give up a few spots in seeding in exchange for better health and rest going into the playoffs because they know they can go on the road and get the job done. That is what their team is built to do.
While it is nice to see that a projection model is bullish on the Warriors, it may be more appropriate in understanding the team as a potential playoff force rather than fully capturing the way the team is going to be handled in the regular season.