Jonathan Kuminga enters the NBA playoffs hanging onto his spot inside the Golden State Warriors rotation by a thread, without any sort of guarantee that will change anytime soon, if ever. It is a shift in dynamics that head coach Steve Kerr attributes to the addition of Jimmy Butler, and Kuminga's poor fit alongside him. It's also one that sets the stage for Golden State to lose the 22-year-old for nothing this summer.
This seems like a remote possibility on its face. Kuminga is going to hit restricted free agency, so the Dubs will have the right to match any offer he receives. That presumes he even gets one.
Though a handful of teams have pathways to opening up semi-serious spending power, the Brooklyn Nets are currently the only squad projected to have more than $25 million in cap space. Ergo, they are the lone potential suitor who can (currently) meet the $30-plus million-per-year price tag he previously desired.
This dearth of cap-rich teams has reportedly "led various team strategists this week to suggest that a sign-and-trade could be the ultimate mechanism that delivers the former No. 7 pick out of the Bay Area come July," according to The Stein Line's Marc Stein and The People's Insider Jake Fischer. That is an ideal outcome for the Warriors. They do not have to bankroll the next deal for a player who, as of now, isn't a seamless fit with the rest of the roster, and also get something back in return.
Except, what if it turns out they can't get anything as part of his exit?
The Base Year Compensation rule could derail any Kuminga trade
Because Kuminga will be a free agent with full Bird rights and in line for a raise that exceeds 20 percent of his current price point ($7.6 million ), he and the Warriors will be subject to the Base Year Compensation provision.
This rule stipulates that in any prospective sign-and-trade, his outgoing value to Golden State will be his 2025-26 salary or 50 percent of his first-year salary in a new deal, whichever is greater. Meanwhile, Kuminga's acquiring team would have to account for 100 percent of his first-year salary in the new contract.
Let's use the $30 million number previously floated around as the example. If the Warriors sign-and-trade Kuminga at that price point, his next team will be taking in $30 million of new money. For Golden State's purposes, though, it would be as if they're sending out just $15 million, which is half of Kuminga's new salary.
That difference matters. It makes cobbling together workable deals more difficult, or in some cases impossible, because of how money-matching works in trade transactions.
Golden State cannot acquire another $30 million player as part of this theoretical sign-and-trade, because it won't have any cap space with which to work. Without expanding the deal, it would basically be limited to bringing back someone making $22.5 million or less. That is Kuminga's outgoing price point ($15 million) plus the $7.5 million on top they would be allowed to accept...if they stay under the first apron...which they might not.
Can the Warriors find the right trade partner?
Spotrac currently has the Dubs beginning the offseason $25 million under the first apron, so we're working with fine lines. None of this is a huge deal if the Warriors are sending Kuminga to a team with more flexible books.
The Nets could take him in without send back any money. The Detroit Pistons can chisel out north of $20 million in wiggle room if they please, so they could ship out somewhere between $5 million and $15 million in outgoing to money to make the math work.
But the list of teams with this kind of financial runway is slim. There are maaaaybe a half-dozen squads that can dredge up north of $15 million in cap space. That number may be even smaller when you consider the non-taxpayer mid-level exception is slated to be $14.1 million. Teams cannot use the MLE if they have cap space. So in many cases, they can enjoy similar spending power without having to jump through the hoops of cutting costs and losing other players.
Detroit is a perfect case study. It can have more than $20 million in space if it renounces rights to pending free agents like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Beasley. But what's better: Getting rid of both players, among others, and spending $20 million? Or (potentially) retaining both, and then being able to spend $14 million?
It's not even a question when framed this way. But even if it were, the Warriors need teams with more flexibility to actually be interested in Kuminga. The Pistons will not be if they plan to keep Jalen Duren. The Nets may be interested in taking flier, but why would they agree to compensate the Warriors for Kuminga when they, unlike others, can just sign him outright?
Kuminga's free agency will get interesting
This is where Golden State's finances come into play. Brooklyn may play ball in sign-and-trade talks if the Warriors say they'll match whatever offer sheet that comes down the pipeline. But they are a hair more than $17 million beneath next year's luxury tax, per Spotrac, without accounting for Kuminga's next contract or any other new additions. It isn't a given they pony up what it takes to keep him.
Yes, matching any offer that Kuminga receives jibes with a "preserve the asset" line of thinking. But depending on how much he costs, there's no guarantee Golden State can simply move him later. And it can ill afford back up the Brink's truck if there's even a semi-real possibility Kuminga's new deal devolves into a net-negative asset.
Perhaps this turns out to be a non-issue. The $30-million-per-year offer can, for now, only come from one team. If the Nets aren't interested, Kuminga's choppy 2024-25 campaign might end up submarining his market value.
If he goes from a $30-plus million player to one in the $15 million to $20 million range, every possible scenario is on the table. Golden State could keep him or have an easier team moving him. But if that mega offer does materialize, either from Brooklyn or a team that carves out more money, don't be so sure the Warriors will be in position to capitalize on his exit.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.