A day that was supposed to be a celebration quickly turned into another debacle for the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night.
Gui Santos — the 55th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft — signed a three-year, $15 million extension with the Warriors. Hours later, the Lakers stomped out the celebration.
Los Angeles blasted Golden State 129–101, with the game essentially over after the first quarter. The Warriors shot 34.6% from the field and 2-of-13 from three, trailing by 13 after one — a hole they never climbed out of.
A shake-up in the starting five might be next
That extension raises a big question: Should Gui Santos start over Draymond Green going forward?
Once the Warriors finally get healthy, one of the two might end up on the bench, with Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis and one of De'Anthony Melton or Brandin Podziemski expected to start for Golden State. During Curry's now 10-game absence due to a knee injury, Santos has been making a strong case to keep his spot.
Over the last 10 games, the Brazilian forward is averaging 15.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Meanwhile, Green — who was a -30 in 24 minutes against the Lakers — has been struggling, posting 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists on 36.6% shooting (29.3% from three) while committing over two turnovers per game.
Additionally, over that same span, Golden State has been far more productive with Santos on the floor than with Green. With Santos out there, the Warriors have been roughly average on both ends (114.5 offensive rating, 114.1 defensive rating). When he sits, their offense craters to 100.8 — a mark that would rank last in the league — along with a below-average 112.6 defensive rating.
With Green on the floor, the Warriors’ offensive rating drops all the way to 96.6 — a number that would be by far the worst in the league — along with a leaky defense (117.5 defensive rating). When the veteran forward goes to the bench, Golden State flips the script, turning into the would-be best offense in the NBA (120.8 offensive rating).
As Steve Kerr has repeated several times, Green is at his best when playing alongside Curry — arguably like everyone else.
The numbers don't lie and fall into Gui Santos' favor
If you want to compare, the Curry-Green two-man lineup boasts a 118.0 offensive rating and a 113.6 defensive rating (+4.4 net rating). Santos and Curry have similar results, with a 112.2 offensive rating and a 109.3 defensive rating (+2.9 net rating). With the jump Santos has made over the last few weeks, it’s easy to assume the offense would look cleaner, while the defense could be even sharper.
Let’s dig deeper into the numbers. If we add Green or Santos to the three “locks” in the starting lineup going forward (the sample is still too small to include Porzingis), the results are once again similar — but the group with Santos shows more upside.
The Curry–Podziemski–Moody–Green four-man unit owns a 110.4 offensive rating and a 107.2 defensive rating (+3.2 net). Swap Green for Santos and the offense dips to 102.8 — but the defense tightens even more, posting a staggering 97.0 defensive rating.
Where the real separation could come is with Porziņģis. The 7-foot-2 big man is expected to add another dimension offensively while solidifying the back line with his rim protection. Plugging him into an already sturdy defensive group could do wonders. With Curry and Porziņģis on the floor, the Warriors should have enough shot creation to keep the offense afloat — and the defense has a real path to top-tier.
While benching a veteran like Green is a tough sell, Steve Kerr should at least experiment with it. The Warriors also have to keep one eye on the future, and continuing to develop a player like Santos should be a priority. Besides, Draymond anchoring the second unit could bring out the best in players like Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II and Will Richard.
Curry, who hasn't played since Jan. 30, will be re-evaluated Sunday but will be out a little longer, while Porziņģis could be back against the L.A. Clippers on Monday after missing four-straight games with an illness. That means we could be close to getting our first real look at a Curry–Podziemski–Moody–Santos–Porziņģis lineup if Kerr decides to give it a try.