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Latest Kristaps Porzingis prediction gives Warriors a clear path in free agency

The Warriors need to sign Porzingis to, at most, a two-year deal around $15 million annually. It's one of the only ways the offseason works out in their favor.
Apr 17, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Golden State Warriors center Kristaps Porzingis (7) against the Phoenix Suns during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Apr 17, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Golden State Warriors center Kristaps Porzingis (7) against the Phoenix Suns during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Golden State Warriors are entering a highly pivotal offseason as we approach the start of the 2026 NBA Draft on June 23.

As enumerated in Anthony Slater's extensive report for ESPN yesterday, there's a ton of factors at play here. Draymond Green is expected to pick up his $27.6 million player option, leaving the Warriors in a bit of a financial bind even if they're willing to use his expiring contract as a trade chip. De'Anthony Melton, meanwhile, seems set to opt out of his player option. Al Horford's future remains undetermined.

But as all this gets sorted out, the Warriors have a highly important free agent just waiting to hit the open market. Golden State acquired Kristaps Porzingis at last season's trade deadline in exchange for Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga. Slater reported that the Warriors are looking to bring Poringis back and that there is growing momentum toward a deal.

As frustrating as it may be, bringing Porzingis back is now a necessity. If they can manage to thread the needle that former NBA executive John Hollinger outlined in his recent piece for The Athletic, though, it may not be all that painful.

"He’s likely looking at a one- or two-year deal at this point because of the health questions, and valuations around the non-taxpayer MLE. The Warriors have Bird rights on Porziņģis, and he seems to fit as well there as he would anywhere else; something in the area of two years and $25 million to $30 million seems fair and would put him on a similar timeline to the rest of the Warriors’ vets." John Hollinger, The Athletic

Warriors need to keep Kristaps Porzingis on a timeline with their remaining veterans

The Warriors have consistently been hesitant to commit long-term money or hand out flexibility to players beyond the defined end of Stephen Curry's contract. Jimmy Butler, for example, was signed to a two-year, $110 million extension upon his arrival in Golden State— designed to line up exactly with the end of Curry's current deal. Green's player option reflects the same modus operandi.

Curry is eligible for an extension this offseason, though. If he decides to extend his career, it will likely be on a year-to-year basis, and one would imagine the Warriors will have a solid grasp on Curry's willingness to continue playing by the time we get to August.

Giving Porzingis longer than one year on his contract, while not ideal, is therefore reasonable. When Porzingis was available for the Warriors last season, he was relatively productive. He averaged 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists across his 15 games in Golden State. He shot just 31.1% from beyond the arc, but one would imagine both his perimeter shooting and his overall conditioning will improve with more time on the court and experience in the Warriors' system.

The problem here is that Porzingis has a healthy amount of leverage for a player in his position. If Porzingis departs, Golden State has very few realistic options on the market to replace him. Horford can't take on a full starting load. Neither can Quinten Post. Even Aday Mara, the top center in this year's draft, has some serious questions about his conditioning coming into the NBA.

But assuming no team is willing to take a longer-term swing on Porzingis, the Warriors should be able to convince him to sign a two-year deal. Perhaps a player option could sweeten the pot, although this is a vastly different situation from Horford's saga last offseason.

Even with Green back at his full $27.6 million salary, keeping Porzingis at or below $15 million for 2026-27 would leave them with roughly $13 million in space between them and the luxury tax to try to add to the roster. Green's return at that price will make it difficult for them to hold onto the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which comes in right around $15 million for 2026-27).

But Porzingis, at this point, is likely a must-sign free agent for the Warriors, and those terms for a new deal would be a perfect outcome given the team's current situation.

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