For the Golden State Warriors, the question of the offseason (beyond their highly-anticipated first-round pick) centers around the future of Kristaps Porzingis.
Sure, Al Horford and his player option are certainly a variable to be considered. So is DeAnthony Melton's and Draymond Green's options. But the Warriors spent their two prime trade-candidate salaries to go after Porzingis at the trade deadline. If he ultimately doesn't return, that move looks a lot worse in hindsight.
When he was healthy, Porzingis looked solid in a Warriors uniform. Across 15 games, he averaged 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 31.1% from beyond the arc. One would imagine that, with more reps, that 3-point percentage would have continued to rise.
It's hard to imagine a better pairing for Stephen Curry when Porzingis is available. Unfortunately for Golden State, that 'if' is a major factor in Porzingis's value.
Mike Shearer, writing for Hoops Habit on the 'dream' and 'nightmare' scenarios for each major free agent this offseason, made the case that Porzingis should sign wherever is willing to grant him more than a two-year deal.
"I’m not even sure Porzingis knows what’s going on with his body. Some would say he should take a one-year prove-it deal, but not me. More than almost anyone on this list, he should be location-agnostic and simply chase the longest contract for the most guaranteed money he can. Because if he proves he’s healthy and plays well? Some contender will be willing to trade for him. And if he doesn’t, well, that’s what the money is for." Mike Shearer, Hoops Habit
If Golden State truly want to retain Porzingis this offseason, they may have put themselves in a position where they're forced to take a dangerous gamble on his long-term health.
Kristaps Porzingis will be seeking out security this offseason. Are the Warriors willing to provide that?
Of all the major free agents this offseason, Porzingis's carries the most uncertainty. And for good reason.
He played in just 74 games over the last two seasons between the Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, and the Warriors. Betting on Porzingis to be healthy on a game-to-game basis is a gamble, let alone betting on his long-term ability to remain on the court.
Golden State publicly claimed during Porzingis's short tenure that they had an actionable plan to keep him healthy. That alone should, in theory, be enough to entice Porzingis back to the organization. But Shearer makes a strong point.
Porzingis will be looking to go wherever offers him the most long-term security this offseason.
Perhaps no team is willing to take that risk. There's a chance Porzingis commands a contract at or around the value of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Contracts signed using that mechanism can extend up to four seasons.
But any team in the market for Porzingis, especially those without access to the non-taxpayer MLE, would need a reliable backup center to make that gamble worth it.
Maybe the Celtics, who now have the ascendant Neemias Queta in the fold, would be willing to gamble on Porzingis again. Or the Los Angeles Lakers could take a swing if they move off of DeAndre Ayton's contract and are able to retain Jaxson Hayes.
For the Warriors, though, a three or four-year contract has a chance to extend past the end of Curry's tenure with the team. Golden State has largely been hesitant to commit money into what is a highly uncertain future for the organization.
While the Warriors have only one sure-fire way to ensure Porzingis returns, it represents a line they might not be willing to cross this offseason.
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