The Golden State Warriors, despite the excellent play of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, have gotten out to a 10-10 start to the season, already digging a hole for themselves to climb out of in a loaded Western Conference.
To make matters worse, moreover, their biggest weakness from last season, their inability to defend in the paint, has not improved even marginally with Al Horford on the roster, and, although he is now out with injury, the Warriors must soon come to a serious realization about his role on the team.
Although Horford presents a veteran presence and a reliable body at the center position, he is likely not the solution they hoped he would be to their problems on the interior.
The Warriors have struggled mightily to defend the rim this season
Although Golden State defeated the Houston Rockets in seven games in the first round of last year's playoffs, the intensity of the matchup revealed a vital truth. The Warriors could not slap Draymond Green at the five and hope to compete for a championship.
Although Green is still one of the most capable defenders in the league, it is unfair to ask him to go against players against whom he is vastly outmatched in size on a night-to-night basis. Therefore, Golden State's offseason signing of Horford to a two-year, $12 million contract was meant to address this issue.
Last season, Horford started 42 games at center for the championship-contending Boston Celtics, posting a 1.3 defensive box plus-minus while anchoring a top defense in the NBA.
This season, at age 39, Horford has yet to start a game for the Warriors and has posted a -1.9 defensive box plus-minus: a number that would be the worst in his career if it holds steady. Moreover, Golden State has given up the 10th-most points, on average, to opponents in the paint this season.
It is fair to say that, if they cannot solve this issue by the end of the season, it could severely limit their chances as championship contenders.
Is their defense salvageable if they're going to depend upon Horford?
There is a silver lining in all of this. Quinten Post, who has started eight games at center for the team, has shown marked improvements on the defensive end of the floor. As it stands, he has posted a 1.2 defensive box plus-minus, and the team has an astounding 14.5 net rating in his minutes on the court.
As a reliable 3-point shooter as well, Post could be in the process of becoming the ideal stretch five for the Warriors as we speak, and, if he is able to do so, Horford will be able to take on the bench role that he seems suited for at this point in his career.
If Horford can comfortably take on a 20 minute-per-game role without many offensive expectations placed upon him, simply serving as an additional floor-spacing and defensive presence, then Golden State should see improvement in this area over the course of the season.
If Post regresses, however, and they are ultimately forced to lean solely on Horford and Green as their centers, things could turn disastrous very quickly.