For the past decade or so, success has rhymed with strong starts for the team by the bay. The key mark has been being over .500 at the 30-game juncture, which usually falls around Christmas.
Since the franchise's first playoff appearance in the Stephen Curry era in 2012-13, the Warriors have made the postseason eight out of nine times when posting a winning record at the 30-game point. When at or below .500, they've missed the playoffs in three of five seasons, including twice over the last three years.
About a month ago, ESPN shared its summer forecast for the upcoming 2026-2027 NBA season. The outlet's experts had the Golden State Warriors at 35 wins and 47 losses, right between the Phoenix Suns (42-40) and the Utah Jazz (34-48), in the midst of the Play-In race for the fourth consecutive year. Given the franchise's uneventful offseason — basically only adding veteran Georges Niang, Brandon Williams and rookie first-rounder Yaxel Lendeborg to a Play-In squad — it's hard to disagree.
The Warriors can’t afford to stumble out of the gate
Head coach Steve Kerr and 10-year veteran Gary Payton II have already expressed their optimism regarding this group of players. Both have embraced the recent "non-contender" label attached to the franchise, even comparing this iteration of the Warriors to their 2022 championship team.
For anything close to that kind of success to happen, the Warriors will have to survive while waiting for their injured wings — both Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody have started light on-court activities — to come back around the trade deadline. In other words: the way they start off their season will likely determine its outcome.
Back in 2021-22, they opened the season 24-6. From the dynasty's first NBA title in 2015 to their third in 2018, they never lost more than six games through 30 contests. Of course the teams are incomparable. One is a dynasty and the other is on a three-year Play-In appearance streak. But the idea remains the same: if they want to have any chance of making some kind of noise come April and May, this team needs to get off to a good start. First order of business: don't lose very winnable games. Unfortunately, the Warriors let a few of them slip away last season.
I've singled out three losses from last season that I consider inexcusable. They were pretty bad.
On October 30, the Warriors fell to a Giannis-less Milwaukee Bucks team despite Curry, Jonathan Kuminga, and Jimmy Butler all contributing at least 20 points. Adding salt to the wound: Ryan Rollins, a former Warrior, scored a then-career-high 32 points.
Then came probably their worst loss of the season on November 1 against an Indiana Pacers team that had gone winless through five games, was playing on the back end of a back-to-back, and was missing five of its best players in Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin, and T.J. McConnell. The Warriors blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead and left Indy with one more loss on their record.
The last one, though not as dramatic as the previous two, was their loss to an Anthony Edwards-less Timberwolves team in mid-December despite Curry pouring in 39 points.
The point is, if the Warriors want to have any chance of staying intact until reinforcements eventually arrive, they can't afford to drop those types of games. Before the 30-game mark hits this season, the Warriors will play at least seven teams that posted more losses than wins last season, including the Memphis Grizzlies three times. Given the current state of their roster, a realistic goal would be to remain at or north of .500 through those first 30 games.
The Warriors need everyone, not just Curry
Several things will have to go right for this team to fulfill that goal, starting with the obvious one: its superstar needs to be on the court. Last year, Curry missed 39 regular-season games with a lingering runner's knee injury. The Warriors went 13-26 in those games. Over the last three seasons, the team has lost over 60% of its games when No. 30 is in street clothes.
Recent history has shown us that a dazzling Curry isn't always enough to come away with the W. In the 14 games Curry put up at least 30 points last season, the Warriors went just 6-8. He needs support. Next year, that support will in large part come in the shape of young'uns, even more so now that it's been announced that Kristaps Porzingis will be out indefinitely with an undisclosed illness.
They'll need first-round forward Yaxel Lendeborg to have an immediate impact on both ends of the floor. Brandin Podziemski needs to establish himself as a secondary ball-handler and creator. Gui Santos must help fill the void on the wings and ride the momentum that earned him an extension. They'll need their depth more than ever.
An organization that's grown so used to contending for a title year in and year out isn't even considered a threat anymore. The odds are stacked against this roster. Maybe it's for the best. But if they're going to recreate some of the magic that occurred now four years ago, a solid start is a must.
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