The Golden State Warriors are hinging their season on a number of uncertainties.
On the one hand, that leaves ample room for anxiety. Can they count upon Jimmy Butler to play a major offensive role upon his return? To what extent is Al Horford still a viable rotational center? What can they expect out of Yaxel Lendeborg during his rookie campaign?
But if everything comes together, this team has a real chance to exceed expectations. Assuming Stephen Curry can stay healthy and the rest of the rotation provides enough support around him, a returning Butler and Moses Moody should give Golden State the juice it needs to make some noise in the Play-In Tournament and perhaps in the postseason.
The key here, though, is that tricky word—the rotation. Where are the Warriors going to get enough offensive punch from to make it through the early portions of the season without Butler? How is this defense going to unfold with the deficits they have in certain areas of the roster?
The answer to both those questions, at least in part, lies in the performance of Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis signed a two-year, $40 million deal this offseason to return to the Warriors, but it's constructed in such a way that the team could easily move on next offseason.
As Porzingis tries to carve out one more NBA lifeline, therefore, the Warriors need him to find his footing again almost as much as he needs them.
Kristaps Porzingis will be the key to the Warriors' rotation early in the season
Trading for Porzingis at the deadline last season was a major gamble, no matter how you want to spin it.
While we know what Porzingis can be as a floor spacer and a rim protector when he's healthy and playing at the top of his game, he's been limited by chronic illness and various injuries over the past few seasons, and he's never been a particularly available player even earlier in his career. It was a swing on the Warriors' part to see if they could unlock some of that remaining upside with their training and conditioning staff.
Porzingis played solidly across his 15 regular season games with Golden State, averaging 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while knocking down 43.3% of his field goal attempts. But it was clear that he needed time to find his footing on the NBA court again. His minutes were limited, and his perimeter shot, especially, felt off-kilter for much of his stint with the team.
With Butler out, Golden State doesn't currently have a true second offensive option to turn to beyond Curry. Lendeborg should provide a boost in that department, but that's an unfair burden to heave upon a rookie—even one with as much experience as Lendeborg has.
The onus, then, falls upon Porzingis. If Porzingis can start to hit his perimeter shots at a rate closer to 36 or 37% and provide the interior game we all know he can, it wouldn't be surprising in the least if his scoring average eclipses 20 points per game. This would allow both Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski to be more selective with their shots, and it would also allow Lendeborg to take on more of the two-way role that he seems better-suited for at the outset of his career.
Whether or not Porzingis remains with the Warriors beyond 2026-27, he needs to prove to the NBA as a whole that he still has what it takes to be a consistent starter and an offensive threat. Golden State needs him to accomplish that in the short-term if they're going to mount any sort of realistic run during the regular season.
Their interests convene pretty closely then in 2026-27. It's simply a matter of whether Porzingis is able to live up to the expectations that have been placed upon him.
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