After an early offseason full of speculation, the Golden State Warriors' roster is now mostly set in stone.
They're going to be running things back. They re-signed Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, De'Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II. Perhaps Yaxel Lendeborg becomes the type of two-way scorer and defender they need— either as a starter or off the bench. But apart from that, the chances for this team to finish any better than the 37-45 record they posted last season are looking pretty slim.
Horford, Porzingis, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green are going to need to miss at least 20 games each, and that's on the optimistic end. This team, no matter how you spin it, is destined for the Play-In Tournament.
But they still have one wild card in their back pocket. Jimmy Butler seems to be on track to return from his torn ACL at some point in the middle of this campaign. If he can get back to relative full strength— say, averaging close to 20 points per game— by the time the regular season comes to an end, Golden State will still stand a fighting chance to work their way into the playoffs.
The Warriors season is hinging on Jimmy Butler— and that's a dangerous place to be
This upcoming Warriors season has been characterized as a sort of 'down year' by multiple commentators and analysts this offseason. That's true in one sense of the phrase.
Golden State will have ample cap space to pursue a max player next offseason, and that could help reset this squad as Curry enters the final season(s) of his career. But with Curry already entering his age-38 season, a true down year isn't an option.
The Warriors need to try to compete no matter what.
The problem is that this roster without Butler is nowhere near competitive. When Golden State made the swing for Butler at the 2024-25 trade deadline, the intention was for him to represent a bona fide secondary scorer next to Curry, taking some of the pressure off the Warriors' superstar and creating his own offense by consistently getting downhill and drawing contact. Butler has been highly successful at that when he's been healthy.
But even if Butler's timeline for return is shorter than we might think, there's no guarantee a 37-year-old coming back from a torn ACL is anything close to his former self athletically. Butler will, at the very least, require a ramp-up period to even represent a significant offensive factor for Golden State— let alone a reliable secondary scorer.
If Butler can find his footing before the end of the season, though, the Warriors will stand a fighting chance in the Play-In Tournament. Those teams don't normally have the mix of veteran playoff experience and superstar play that the Warriors do, and Butler's presence could help complete the roster at least in that capacity.
But if Butler isn't able to return to that stature, this season can essentially be written off from the start. It's a painful place to be, but it's a reality Golden State must face in 2026-27.
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