As long as Stephen Curry is still playing, the Golden State Warriors are going to consistently draw the attention of analysts and prognosticators across the league.
Even with a relatively quiet offseason, speculation has run rampant surrounding Golden State. Could they be in on a star? Is there a chance that Curry forces the front office's hand with his ongoing extension negotiations?
The reality for the Warriors is much quieter than that. This front office is content fielding their current roster around Curry until cap space opens up next offseason. We'll see what they do then, but for the most part, it feels as though this organization is comfortable riding this era into the sunset.
That doesn't mean there isn't room for an optimistic spin on this season, though.
The Ringer's prognostication of the Warriors' upcoming season gets one thing wrong
Most analysts, then, have tended to project this season for Golden State according to their floor. If Curry goes down at any point, or Jimmy Butler or Kristaps Porzingis need to miss significant time, this could very well be a team sitting at the bottom of the Western Conference standings by the end of the season. Michael Pina at The Ringer reflected this sentiment in his recent preseason power rankings, where he placed the Warriors 22nd resting comfortably in the 'Sad Play-In Hopefuls' category.
"There’s pretty much no logical reason to feel optimistic about these Warriors, the oldest team in the league. It’s a bummer... But for all the doom and gloom that comes when a curtain is about to close, there will still be plenty of games where all those guys see the floor, execute a gorgeous brand of basketball, put their pride on the line, and give themselves a chance to win." Michael Pina, The Ringer
This certainly sounds like an obituary (with a tight-lipped optimistic spin) written before the season has even started—doesn't it? This roster will be able to fight occasionally over the course of the season, but the talent and consistency simply isn't there to project them as anything other than a team on the Play-In Bubble.
To an extent, Pina is right, and his stance effectively summarizes that of all the analysts that have been down on Golden State this offseason. But there's room here for a more optimistic take. Every team has its floor and its ceiling, and the league as a whole has discounted the latter too heavily for the Warriors.
Even with the tanking measures the NBA has taken, the Warriors still aren't even close to the worst teams in the Western Conference, like the Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings, as long as they're able to stay healthy. They have more starpower, and a clear vision on both sides of the ball, that will help keep them afloat over the course of the season.
But there's also some major upside if we're able to assume mostly high-end outcomes for these players. Yaxel Lendeborg doesn't need to be an immediate star, but he does need to provide consistent, high-level two way play almost from the jump. He certainly looks capable of that. If Kristaps Porzingis can appear in 65 games (with some help from the Warriors' training staff) and consistently hit his 3-point shots while anchoring Frank Vogel's defense, this team will officially have its second offensive option until Jimmy Butler gets back in the fold.
Now assume that the developments we saw from Gui Santos and Brandin Podziemski at the end of last season weren't simply rotation-induced mirages. Assume De'Anthony Melton rebounds from his poor end to last season. Assume Butler can average 15 points per game by the end of the campaign.
These are all relatively realistic outcomes.
If we put it all together, that's not a championship-caliber team. But it is a team that's certainly on par with squads that analysts like Pina have consistently ranked much higher—including the Phoenix Suns and the Utah Jazz.
A certain measure of gloom around this upcoming Warriors season is understandable, and that's where most of the NBA's analysts are positioned on the team at this point. But the ceiling for this team isn't entirely out of reach, and that's important to remember as we head into the new campaign.
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