The Golden State Warriors signed Al Horford to a two-year $11.6 million contract this offseason, and general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. must admit that he made a mistake. They wanted a center capable of spacing the floor and protecting the rim. That isn’t easy to find, but betting on the 39-year-old hasn’t worked out. He no longer fits the mold and is dealing with an old man injury that could linger.
Many thought Horford would start for Golden State, but it quickly became clear that wasn’t realistic. The veteran needs his minutes monitored. Horford averaged 5.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block in 21.8 minutes per game through his first 12 contests. Those numbers seem strong, but he shot just 34.3 percent from the field with abysmal on-off splits.
Now, the 6’8 big man is dealing with a sciatic nerve injury that has already forced him to miss four straight games. Golden State used its taxpayer mid-level exception on Horford. It was a big bet by Dunleavy Jr. that the veteran was the missing piece, but it is being emphatically proven wrong.
It is time for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to admit that signing Al Horford was a mistake
The Warriors have a negative-10.1 net rating with Horford on the floor this season and are 14.8 points per 100 possessions better without him. It is a small sample, but the 39-year-old has been declining for years.
It appears Father Time has finally caught up to him. Expecting some gigantic bounce back is foolish.
The Warriors are 11-11 to begin this season and look like an average team. They hoped to be serious title contenders because this is their best chance to get Stephen Curry his fifth championship ring. The 37-year-old is only declining from here. Golden State has three future Hall of Famers on its roster, but the core is over the hill.
The Dubs desperately needed some youth and energy, not another aging veteran like Horford. They had to drag out the Jonathan Kuminga saga for months because Mike Dunleavy Jr. knew his athleticism was crucial. Why did he not take the same approach in using his taxpayer mid-level exception?
Dunleavy Jr. should admit he was wrong. Golden State passed on Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. to sign Al Horford. All four players are making less money and would have had to entertain a serious inquiry from the Dubs at the taxpayer MLE. Instead, the general manager chose the aging Horford, and it hasn’t worked out.
Horford has produced a 0.038 win shares per 48 minutes and a 0.0 value over replacement player (VORP) this season. Both are the worst marks of his career by a wide margin. He may have fallen off a cliff with his decline and is now dealing with an injury that can linger for months. It is fair to call this one already. The Warriors made a mistake and got caught betting on an aging veteran.
The Golden State Warriors have their sights set on contending. They will be looking to upgrade their roster before the Feb. 5 trade deadline, which could mean trading Al Horford if his production doesn’t improve. Mike Dunleavy Jr. was wrong on this one. Horford just didn’t have enough left in the tank.