As the Golden State Warriors and restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga have sat at an impasse this offseason, the young forward has been hesitant to accept the organization's two-year, $45 million offer for a number of reasons.
Yet, according to Tim Bontemps on a recent episode of The Hoop Collective, Kuminga's sole recourse, which involves him taking the qualifying offer and entering unrestricted free agency next offseason, would make it almost impossible for him to recoup the funds he misses out on initially.
Although there has been well-document strife between Kuminga and the organization throughout this contractual saga, it could ultimately be in his best interest to take the short-term deal they have offered.
Jonathan Kuminga's qualifying offer is not a good gamble for him to make
As a restricted free agent, the lone leverage Kuminga has preserved this offseason against Golden State is the threat that he could always play on his one-year, $7.8 million qualifying offer next season, guaranteeing unrestricted free agency upon its expiration and forcing the organization to lose their most valuable trade asset for nothing.
While, in some ways, this would be preferable for Kuminga, as he would be able to have complete control over his next destination, Bontemps points out why it could be the wrong move in the long run: "[Kuminga's] qualifying offer is like $7.5 million. He's getting offered somewhere around the potential to make $45 million [over two years]... and for him to get the number back, he'd have to have a salary next year that starts somewhere around $40 million, which is almost in any scenario extraordinarily unlikely..."
Across the NBA this offseason, restricted free agents have been the victims of a relatively frozen market, leaving them essentially no option other than to return to their organization. In some of these players' cases, however, taking the qualifying offer is a gamble that could pay off later.
For Josh Giddey of the Chicago Bulls, for example, the difference between his projected $20 million annual value and his qualifying offer, which sits at around $11 million, is something that can be made up with a larger contract down the line.
For Kuminga, however, it has been made clear this offseason that he will likely not fetch his desired $30 million annual value at this point in his career, making it almost impossible for him to overcome to deficit in earnings he would take on this year by playing on the qualifying offer.
To Kuminga, who has made only $24 million in his career to this point, this is no small matter. Therefore, while it puts the young forward in an unfortunate situation, he must accept the painful truth that his only option is to return to Golden State on a two or three year deal.