Even with Steve Kerr returning for his 13th season as head coach, changes will be coming for the Golden State Warriors this offseason.
They've now missed the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. Stephen Curry will be eligible for an extension in a few short months. Although he's very likely to return, the end of his career is still rapidly approaching. With whatever financial flexibility they have this offseason, the Warriors need to reconstruct the depth around Curry. Even if they make a trade for a star, it's truly their only chance of achieving anything while Curry is still playing.
That will lead to some difficult choices for Mike Dunleavy and company. Seth Curry, whose union with his brother was marred by injuries and inconsistent play, will likely be gone this offseason. So will Nate Williams, who showed flashes of strong offensive play but is out of two-way eligibility.
Fan-favorite guard Pat Spencer, though, could be left in the most unfortunate position on the roster. Especially if the Warriors add another guard in the 2026 NBA Draft, it's clear that his intensity and hustle mindset will not be enough for him to maintain a role in Golden State's backcourt.
Pat Spencer's time on the Warriors is likely coming to an end
In Nick Friedell of The Athletic's recent forecast for the Warriors' offseason, he gave an estimation of each Warrior's chances of returning this offseason. Curry was, of course, at 100%. Al Horford, who has a player option this offseason, was estimated at 65%.
Spencer was given a 40% chance. That's reasonable for now. But if the Warriors add a guard in the first or second round of the Draft, that figure will likely drop significantly.
Spencer has endeared himself to Kerr over his time with the team, making the right plays and always moving with energy during his time on the court. But his offensive skill-set has frankly found its ceiling. Although the third-year guard saw massively increased run after the trade deadline this season, he averaged just nine points, 2.7 rebounds, and 4.2 assists on 42.9% shooting from the floor.
At 6'2", his upside as a defender and downhill driver are extremely limited, and he's not exceedingly creative with the ball in his hands. Will Richard's continued emergence also leaves very little reason to grant Spencer minutes with the roster at full strength.
Of course, if the Warriors don't make any additions to their backcourt this offseason, there's a world in which Spencer returns. Another two-way contract might even be an attractive option. But Golden State needs a reliable, play-making backcourt partner for Curry.
If they can find that either through the Draft or free agency, the unfortunate truth is that Spencer is likely gone.
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