The Golden State Warriors should have plenty of paths to take in the Draft. They're currently slated to select at 11th overall, and even if the Draft Lottery doesn't break their way this weekend, they should still find themselves with an immensely talented player at their disposal.
The challenge is picking the right one. Especially if Steve Kerr is returning as head coach, the priority for the Warriors must be to find a prospect who can contribute to their championship efforts relatively immediately.
Golden State has needs for a ball-handler in the backcourt, an additional scoring presence in the frontcourt, and they could even stand to add a true rebounding center. Virtually every prospect, therefore, will be at least somewhat on the table for them in the late lottery.
But there's one prospect, Mikel Brown Jr. out of Louisville, who the Warriors must avoid at all costs if he drops into their draft range. While his skill-set is certainly appealing, the downsides are much too evident for Brown to be a worthy gamble for Golden State.
Warriors must avoid Mikel Brown. Jr. if he drops out of the top-10
To be clear, Brown is a strong prospect and likely should be a top-10 pick in this draft class. Although a lingering back injury limited his time on the court as a freshman, he still averaged 18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists while shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc across 21 games at Louisville. He has above-average positional size for a point guard, and he has the range and the shot-creation acumen to become a true offensive weapon.
All that being said, though, it's still a gamble the Warriors must avoid. Even if you toss out the injury concerns and the lack of sample size in Brown's college production, there are still major bones to pick with his strength and ability to enforce his will on defenders.
He has enough quickness to create the his own shots on the perimeter, but he doesn't quite have the speed or the physical leverage to turn the corner on defenders and get downhill. His finishing at the rim is also sub-par. When you combine these things with the injury concerns, it's clear that Brown has a lower floor than many of the other prospects in his draft range.
With any selection, an organization must weight the projected floor and ceiling of a prospect. For the Warriors, that calculation takes on infinitely more importance in this year's Draft. While they cannot afford to simply grab a long-term role player at 11th overall, they also cannot afford to take a risk like the one Brown represents.
For a team in the midst of a long-term rebuild, taking a prospect with Brown's skill-set might be too good to pass up.
But Golden State has to get this pick right, and Brown (although a tantalizing prospect) carries too many uncertainties.
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