This Golden State Warriors offseason has, without a doubt, been disappointing.
Not only did they miss out on LeBron James, but it looks like all of their major moves will involve bringing their own players back. They extended De'Anthony Melton, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford before giving Draymond Green his one-year, $27.7 million extension (with the implicit no-trade clause waived).
Barring a major trade, this offseason was always going to be minimal for Golden State, though. With that commitment to Green and their hefty Jimmy Butler contract still on the books, their flexibility was severely limited.
With the way they've structured the Green contract, however, they've made room to clear their cap sheet next offseason. Sam Vecenie, on the latest episode of The Game Theory Podcast, suggested that it might be in anticipation of a major free agent class.
"They're structuring their books properly right now to try to go out and try to make splash next year... They should have one plus max cap spots next year... there will be guys that slip through the cracks in free agency." Sam Vecenie, The Game Theory Podcast
If the Warriors don't extend Butler and bring Green back on a significantly lesser annual value next offseason, the door will be open for them to make their final major splash of the Stephen Curry era— perhaps without even cracking open their remaining treasure chest of draft capital.
2027 free agency could be the final saving grace for this era in Golden State
It's too early to write off the 2026-27 season for the Warriors. But with Butler not returning until at least mid-season and Moses Moody set to miss all or most of the campaign, their chances at contention are looking painfully slim.
Once this season comes to an end, though, the financial picture clears up significantly. The Warriors only have four current contract commitments for 2027-28— Moody, Yaxel Lendeborg, Gui Santos, and Will Richard. Curry will likely sign a max extension this offseason to take him at least through that campaign. Both Porzingis and Horford have player options for the second year of their deals.
As Vecenie says, that likely opens up at least one max spot to add a star in free agency next to Curry.
The list of players who can hit free agency next offseason— including those with player options— is massive. Curry is of course on that list currently, but so are Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard.
Out of those players, Durant and Leonard are the most likely to be available. Leonard is the only one without a player option, and his long-term status with the Toronto Raptors remains in limbo as the NBA completes its investigation into the Los Angeles Clippers' alleged salary cap circumvention.
Free agency doesn't tend to yield stars in the modern NBA. But even beyond that star-studded list, there are players who could be attractive additions. Brandon Ingram has a player option. Michael Porter Jr. will enter restricted free agency. Julius Randle has a player option, and Tyler Herro will be an unrestricted free agent.
There's a steep drop-off there, but the Warriors have set themselves up to pursue virtually any player that ultimately becomes available on the open market. They've been hesitant to pursue these stars, for the most part, as a result of the draft capital it would take to acquire them via trade.
But it's certain that next year's free agent class will be one to watch for Golden State, especially once the timeline of Curry's next deal gets nailed down.
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