Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE

Stephen Curry Contract Update: Why Deal Will and Won't Get Done

The latest news on the Stephen Curry contract extension front is that there’s no news. Curry and the Warriors are in the same place they’ve been in for months now: parties are negotiating at a leisurely pace, trying to determine how much it’ll take (and how much the Warriors are willing to give) to lock Curry up and avoid his 2013 restricted free agency.

Here’s why a deal won’t happen by October 31:

Curry knows that if he hits free agency after the season, he’ll probably get a max offer from some team, which the Warriors could match. Barring a totally lost season, Curry is still going to hit the summer of 2013 as a young, promising player with All-Star potential. He knows this. So where’s the sense in him taking a below-market deal for a little long-term security? It’s not like he’s got a degenerative back or knee condition. We’re talking about sprained ankles. Somebody will take the risk on him. Knowing that, he won’t take a cut-rate contract.

Here’s why a deal will happen:

Curry is a smart guy with a new family to care for. Although it’s an extremely remote possibility, there’s a chance that his ankle injuries could persist and even worsen, meaning he’d be unlikely to receive the max money deal he covets. There’s no question the Warriors are willing to make a multi-year commitment to Curry—so long as they can get him for less than he’d be worth if he were totally healthy. If Curry values financial security over a potentially bigger payday, he’ll sign before Halloween.

Obviously, there are benefits to both sides. So whether or not a deal gets done largely depends on both sides’ respective tolerance for risk. Curry’s a good player who could get better. He could also be permanently damaged goods.

This thing could go either way, and in just a few days, we’ll know which side blinked first.

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